How are tariffs affecting the staffing industry?
Trade policy has become a named headwind. The American Staffing Association’s industry outlook now lists trade and tariff pressures alongside soft demand and economic uncertainty as primary member concerns, and Goldman Sachs economists identified tariff uncertainty as a direct contributor to the hiring slowdown that began in late 2025. At its March 2026 meeting, the Federal Reserve held rates steady and raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.7%, citing elevated uncertainty driven partly by trade policy and energy prices.
Why uncertainty helps contingent staffing
When employers cannot forecast demand, they rent capacity instead of buying it. The wait-and-see posture is pushing clients away from permanent hires and toward temporary, contract, and SOW arrangements - a structural tailwind for staffing firms positioned in contingent work, even as it suppresses direct-hire and place-and-search revenue.
The industrial picture: subdued, with pockets
SIA’s industrial staffing coverage forecasts low single-digit revenue growth for 2026, noting that manufacturing and transportation-and-logistics clients remain cautious while smaller, regionally focused accounts are proving more resilient than enterprise-scale ones. SIA also flags that growth opportunities are concentrating in construction and skilled trades, and warns that energy-intensive sectors are vulnerable if fuel costs stay elevated.
The StaffingPulse view: tariff volatility rewards agencies with diversified client rosters and punishes single-vertical enterprise exposure. If your book leans on large manufacturers, build a regional mid-market pipeline now - the resilience in 2026 is at the smaller end of the market.